Boulder Real Estate News & National Statistics

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Friends,

New listings and under-contracts were up last week locally; nationally, we’re seeing sales slowing, which we’re not seeing locally.

 

Under-contracts were up at 105. Contrast this with 85 in 2018, 90 in 2019, and 90 in 2020.

Last week we had 1.01 months supply of inventory, vs .96 MSI in 2018, 1.35 MSI in 2019, and 1.14 MSI in 2020.

Year-to-date under-contracts, which are a coincident indicator, still reflect significant buyer demand this year.  This year we’ve had 3859 under-contracts, vs 3384 in 2018, 3530 in 2019, and 3636 in 2020. Keep in mind that last year the market was still picking up steam at this time of the year; we will have to see if we end the year with a higher number of under-contracts/solds than in 2020, or if we see a seasonal slowdown this year.

The $1.5mm-2mm price band saw a 40% sell-through rate last week, after 3 previous weeks of 266%, 100% and 400%.  This price band likely feels very shopped out.  Though much more balanced, the lower price bands may feel a little scarce as well.  Above $2.5mm has had a steady stream of new inventory without an equal number of under-contracts, so may have some good options right now.

 

Prior to the pandemic, approximately 25% of buyers were planning to move away from their metro area.  Q1 of 2021 saw the high at 31.5%,; we are now at 30.3%, the lowest rate in the last 12 months, but still higher than Q3 of 2020.  All this means that our national migration has likely peaked.  In the coming months, we will likely see a lower number of national buyers circulating in our market, but it will take a while to return to pre-pandemic levels.

As seen through mortgage rate-locks, the enormous demand for second homes that we saw from May 2020-May 2021 has diminished 19% YoY. Looking at solds, we see that vacation home sales were 6.7% of the total sold Jan-April 2021, where in 2019 that same period saw %5 second home sales.

In addition to the YoY decline in solds, the national list-to-sale price ratio decreased to 101.6%, a -0.6% MoM; this is another indication of the slightly lower buyer demand.

Fed: Net worth of households, nonprofits rose to $141.7T in Q2 2021

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