New listings and under-contracts were up last week locally; nationally, we’re seeing sales slowing, which we’re not seeing locally.
Quick Market Recap
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Local Market Update:
Last week, we had 103 new listings, vs 77 in 2018, 89 in 2019, 92 in 2020.
Under-contracts were up at 105. Contrast this with 85 in 2018, 90 in 2019, and 90 in 2020.
Last week we had 1.01 months supply of inventory, vs .96 MSI in 2018, 1.35 MSI in 2019, and 1.14 MSI in 2020.
Year-to-date under-contracts, which are a coincident indicator, still reflect significant buyer demand this year. This year we’ve had 3859 under-contracts, vs 3384 in 2018, 3530 in 2019, and 3636 in 2020. Keep in mind that last year the market was still picking up steam at this time of the year; we will have to see if we end the year with a higher number of under-contracts/solds than in 2020, or if we see a seasonal slowdown this year.
Activity By Price Band:
The $1.5mm-2mm price band saw a 40% sell-through rate last week, after 3 previous weeks of 266%, 100% and 400%. This price band likely feels very shopped out. Though much more balanced, the lower price bands may feel a little scarce as well. Above $2.5mm has had a steady stream of new inventory without an equal number of under-contracts, so may have some good options right now.
National News: Important Headlines
Relocation Intention Dips Slightly, With 30% of Buyers Out-of-Town
Prior to the pandemic, approximately 25% of buyers were planning to move away from their metro area. Q1 of 2021 saw the high at 31.5%,; we are now at 30.3%, the lowest rate in the last 12 months, but still higher than Q3 of 2020. All this means that our national migration has likely peaked. In the coming months, we will likely see a lower number of national buyers circulating in our market, but it will take a while to return to pre-pandemic levels.
Demand for Second Homes Fell 19% Year Over Year in August
As seen through mortgage rate-locks, the enormous demand for second homes that we saw from May 2020-May 2021 has diminished 19% YoY. Looking at solds, we see that vacation home sales were 6.7% of the total sold Jan-April 2021, where in 2019 that same period saw %5 second home sales.
Home Sales Fell 6% in August YoY, the First Annual Decline in 15 Month
In addition to the YoY decline in solds, the national list-to-sale price ratio decreased to 101.6%, a -0.6% MoM; this is another indication of the slightly lower buyer demand.
Catherine was interviewed on KDVR-TV Fox News Denver Morning Show on September 21st talking about the Food Security Project. Check it out below!
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