Locally we saw higher-than-normal new inventory and under-contract numbers. Nationally, we’re seeing a decline in home sales, which is not reflected in our local market.
How is the local market as an aggregate?
6/20-6/27, 2021
Another record-breaking week!
Again last week, listings coming to market were far higher than the past three years, year-over-year.
Under-contracts were again considerably higher than the historic normals, plus higher than 2020.
Our month’s supply of inventory was very much in alignment with the past three years.
2021 year-to-date under-contracts are now above the last three years.
Price changes have gone up from the 2021 week-over-week extreme lows, but they are still considerably lower than what we saw in the past three years year-over-year. This indicates that sellers are not able to command pricing in the way that they were during the winter/spring of 2021.
So, right now both our new inventory and under-contracts are at higher levels than we’ve seen in the past 3 years, indicating that our market is continuing to function at a breakneck speed.
That said, the quantity of buyers circulating in the marketplace is somewhat diminished, as seen through this chart:
Multiple offers have decreased significantly in the past 4-6 weeks, though they are still sometimes happening. Some sellers are not having enough immediate showings to have a successful offer schedule, so more offers are being evaluated as they come in (which is advantageous to attentive buyers).
Buyers should be feeling a little bit of relief in how the Boulder County market is functioning.
That said, with 1.38 months supply of inventory, as an aggregate it is still an extremely strong seller’s market.
How Is The Local Market
By Price Band?
Last week, the price bands up to $1mm were balanced to slightly favoring sellers. Above $1mm, the sell-through rate favored buyers this week.
*Data nerds, click the chart
National Real Estate Trends
Market Cools Slightly; National List-To-Sale Price Ratio at 102.3%
INDICATORS OF THE SLIGHT MARKET COOLING
The Mortgage Bankers Association home purchase index (which tracks mortgage applications – a coincident indicator) has declined 11% since the week ending March 24.
The declining number of national showings (leading indicator) also demonstrates the slight cooling in the market, as seen in the “Declining number of national showings” chart above.
As a result of declining sales, the national supply of homes for sale has crept up 5% from the 2021 low in mid-March.
Addtionally, mortgage rates ticked up above 3% for the first time in 10 weeks, which should also impact buyer demand a smidge.
LAGGING INDICATORS
However, home prices are still rising, homes are selling in fewer days than ever and more homes than ever are selling above list price. These lagging indicators will take longer to reflect a slowdown since they are based on homes that went under contract a 30-60 days ago.
Nationally, the typical home sold for its highest price on record, at its fastest pace on record, and for 2.3% above list price, the largest sale price premium on record in the US.
To recap, as we saw above, locally we are seeing a slight decline in our surplus of buyers, but we’ve not yet seen a decline in our under-contract rate which turns into our sold rate. We actually have an increasing under-contract rate in Boulder County, which is a significant variation from the national decline.
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