Last week: under-contracts were up again showing health in our market. Also, we’ll review some changes with national migration and its impact on the local market.
Aggregate Boulder County Market
5/23 – 5/30, 2021
Last week our under-contract rate went up a good chunk, popping from 120 to 134 week-over-week.
*Data nerds, click the chart
How is The Local Market as an Aggregate?
That increased under-contract activity relative to the decreased under-contracts at this time of year historically (2018 – 68; 2019 – 92) puts our year-to-date under-contracts now closer to the high-end of the historic normals. Again, this reinforces the idea that although our inventory is thin, we have enough inventory to be keeping a historically consistent amount of volume under-contracts and moving to sold.
From a year-over-year months supply of inventory (MSI) perspective, last week we had 1.23 MSI, while 2018 had 1.46 MSI, 2019 had 1.56 MSI, and 2020 was ramping up with 1.76 MSI.
All pretty slim numbers, with this year having less inventory choice for buyers than previous years.
How Is The Local Market
12 new properties came to market last week in the $2.5mm+ range, where typically this number is between 2-6. 12 also came to market in the $1.5-2mm range, where typically this number is between 3-8 units. As a result, buyers in these two categories have a bit more inventory to work with this week.
The sell-through rate for the $0-500k range has been slow for the past two weeks, so if you’re looking for an investment property or an entry-level purchase, now would be a good time to take a peek at what is available.
*Data nerds, click the chart
National Real Estate Trends
Slight Decrease in Number of Migrating Buyers
The number of buyers looking to purchase outside of their home metro area has declined slightly, which could be a leading indicator of a decrease in the migration trend.
In 2019, around 25% of buyers were searching for homes outside of their home metro areas. By Q2 of 2020, that number went up to 27.4%, and by Q1 of 2021 it was up to 31.5%. Q2 of 2021 has had the first decrease since the pandemic started down to 30.6%.
This is still an elevated rate relative to the 2019 normal, but if this trend continues, it could forecast a slowing of the recent rapid price acceleration. As we know from a previous video/newsletter, transplanting buyers on average have a 30% bigger budget than local buyers, which has fueled high over-asking price offers and resulting price acceleration.
Sellers, you should still have many buyers interested in your property, but the number may be beginning to decline a bit, so good idea to move forward as quickly as you are able. As we saw from the analysis above, inventory is still low, so it is a very favorable time to sell.
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